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Monday, July 02, 2012

WHY IS RUSSIA DUMPING ASSAD?

Russia could very easily bring global support behind Assad if its media showed the videos that are freely available on YouTube of General Wesley Clark revealing the plan for war on seven nations in five years shortly after the inside job 9/11.

Indeed Syria could do the same.

But instead Russia has quietly shifted its position so that there is no explicit support for Assad. At a press conference in Moscow while Hasty Hague was visiting, Lavrov revealed this subtle shift in its position.
"We don't support the Syrian government; we support Kofi Annan's plan,"
[source : Echoes of massacre: Europe talks of Syria intervention, RT, http://www.rt.com/news/massacre-syria-intervention-europe-544/, 31/05/2012]

This has been followed by the 'postponement' of the delivery of the S300 system to Syria. This postponement came just a few days after Turkey had deliberately provoked Syria into shooting down one of their planes, so it could be argued that Russia decided not to risk giving Syria the S300 system while NATO in the form of Turkey is trying to provoke an incident that would allow NATO to invoke Article 5 of The Washington Treaty. But on the other hand, the S300 system would surely be a deterrent. Russia now says that it is prepared to reveal the results of its own investigation into the incident. So perhaps the results of their investigation may eventually result in the delivery of the S300.

And now the so-called Action Group for Syria that met in Geneva over the weekend produced a text regarding a transition government for Syria. Russia claimed victory in that demands for the removal of Assad were deleted from the original text, and there are no demands being imposed in the adopted text. The USA, UK and France claim victory because of the "mutual agreement" clause that requires agreement between concerned parties about who would be allowed into this transition government. But there is no explicit statement on who would be involved in giving their consent. Russia claims Assad would be one party and would not agree to his omission from the trasnsition government. But there is no way the opposition, be it the SNC or Lillary herself, would agree to Assad being a member, therefore Assad is finished. Another concern is that this transition government could consist of members from "the present government and the opposition and other groups". Other groups? Surely not al Qaeda?

Absent from the text is a condemnation of the not so covert meddling in Syria by the USA, UK, France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey and everyone else, but there is a wishy-washy statement about respecting the sovereignty of Syria.

This all looks to me like Assad has been dumped and weakened. Only with the foreign interference in Syria removed can the political process in Syria be truly Syrian, which is what Russia appears to want but is perhaps not expressing themselves as clearly and less diplomatically as they could.

But Annan is not being strong enough against this foreign interference, and neither is Russia. And China is also sitting quietly in the background, just watching, and waiting...

I see the violence escalating as the rebs now have much more confidence with more and better arms, there will be many more defections and an eventual coup by the rebs.

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