1ST AUGUST 1914 : THE DAY SIR EDWARD GREY DOOMED EUROPE TO WAR

I have just read a very interesting paper on the diplomacy (or warmongering) of Sir Edward Grey on 1st August 1914.

The paper is entitled "There Must Be Some Misunderstanding": Sir Edward Grey's Diplomacy of August 1, 1914 by Stephen J. Valone.

By 1st August Germany had not declared war on anyone.

On the previous day Germany had issued a 24 hour ultimatum to Russia to stop mobilisation or there would be war, but as yet no official declaration of war.

So what does Grey do?

On the morning of 1st August he makes two proposals to Germany:
1. the first proposal, which was dispatched to Berlin at 1114 (London time), was that as long as Germany did not attack France then Great Britain and France would remain neutral (Grey did this without consulting France!);
2. the second proposal, made 3 hours later, was that Great Britain would remain neutral even if Germany was at war with France.

Apparently this was received in Berlin with great joy and champagne.

At 1530 (London time) Grey met with the German Ambassador to Great Britain, Lichnowsky, at which Grey withdrew his suggestions of neutrality made a few hours before, but by then these offers had been sent to Berlin by Lichnowsky.

At 1900 (Berlin time) Germany declared war on Russia.

Shortly after 2020 (London time) a telegram was received in London from Kaiser Wilhelm II in which Wilhelm accepted the terms of neutrality!!!!!!!

And very soon after this telegram was received, Grey was summoned to Buckingham Palace to meet with King George V. George repeated the same offers of neutrality that Grey had withdrew during the meeting with Lichnowsky.

But here is the killer: Berlin did not receive the notice of withdrawal of neutrality until 2200!

So let's put this into a rough timeline:
1. on 31st July Germany had not declared war on Russia but had issued an ultimatum to stop mobilisation within 24 hours;
2. on the morning of 1st August at 1114 Grey proposes to Germany that Great Britain and France would remain neutral if Germany did not attack France (this was made without consulting France);
3. 3 hours later Grey then makes another proposal that Great Britain would remain neutral even if Germany did start a war on France;
4. at 1530 Grey then withdraws both of these offers of neutrality;
5. at 1900 (Berlin time) Germany declares war on Russia;
6. at about 2030 (London time) a telegram is received in London from Kaiser Wilhelm accepting the terms of neutrality;
7. Grey is summoned to Buckingham Palace, but King George repeats the offers of neutrality;
8. at 2200 (Berlin time) Berlin is finally updated that the two offers of neutrality made by Grey earlier that day had been withdrawn.

So it could be argued that Grey made these offers of neutrality, particularly the second one, to encourage Germany into declaring war on Russia, given that Germany had given a 24 hour ultimatum that was due to expire that day.

It looks like Germany declared war on Russia under the impression that Great Britain was going to remain neutral, thanks to Grey's 'diplomacy' earlier on 1st August, because Berlin did not receive the information that Grey had withdrawn the offers until several hours AFTER Germany had declared war on Russia, whereas a telegram was sent from Berlin to London at about 2030 (London time) agreeing to the terms of neutrality.

So why did Grey withdraw these offers?

At 1500 (London time) Grey was told that the military attache in Berlin was confident that Germany would invade Belgium.