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Saturday, October 17, 2015

WHAT DID GENERAL BREEDLOVE KNOW?

On 30th June 2014 the U.S. European Command Commander, North Atlantic Treaty Organization Supreme Allied Commander General Philip M. Breedlove gave a press conference at which he discussed Russia and the separatists in East Ukraine:


Breedlove also detailed Moscow’s efforts to assist pro-Russian separatists who are battling the Ukrainian government.

He said there are “seven-plus” Russian battalion task groups on the Russian side of the border, plus “numerous small special operations forces.”

The Russians are providing advanced training and heavy weapons to the rebels, Breedlove said.

“What we see in training on the east side of the border is big equipment: tanks, APCs, anti-aircraft capability, and now we see those capabilities being used on the west side of the border,” he said.

Breedlove was asked whether Russian-supplied anti-aircraft weapons had been used by the rebels to shoot down a Ukrainian military transport plane and helicopter in recent weeks. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the attacks.

“It’s a very good likelihood, but we haven’t tied the strings directly together yet,” Breedlove said.

Breedlove could not confirm reports that the rebels have man-portable air defense systems, which are essentially shoulder-fired missiles. He said he has not seen evidence of Russian forces training Ukrainian separatists on the use of MANPADS. But the Russians have taught the rebels to use anti-aircraft weapons mounted on vehicles, according to Breedlove.

[source : Expect cuts to F-15 fleet in Europe, Breedlove says, Stars and Stripes, http://www.stripes.com/news/europe/expect-cuts-to-f-15-fleet-in-europe-breedlove-says-1.291346, 30th June 2014]

So here Breedlove on 30th June said he had not seen evidence of Russia giving training in MANPADs but they had taught them how to use "anti-aircraft weapons mounted on vehicles".

Which "anti-aircraft weapons mounted on vehicles" was Breedlove referencing?

And how did he know this?

If we assume that NATO had satellite imagery of this training then what images did NATO have at the time of East Ukraine?

The DSB report references this conference on pages 186/7. However, the link that the report gives as a reference is dead. And a search on the US Defence Dept lists the earliest mention of Breedlove as 18th July 2014, the day after MH17 came down. Why is that?

But that press conference held by Press Secretary Rear Admiral John Kirby is very interesting, and was perhaps overlooked. There were many refernces to this 30th June conference given by Breedlove. Here is one very interesting question that was asked of Perry:
Q: Going back to General Breedlove's comments. Were there any warnings given to commercial airline companies or any civilian airline authorities about the existence or this level of training for -- that was taking place...

REAR ADM. KIRBY: There was a notice to air at -- to airmen put out. I think you guys know that, that -- that warned civilian aircraft to fly -- to take care over the skies of Ukraine and to fly at higher altitudes. I'm not an expert on that process but there was a -- there was an intentional notice to civilian air carries about that.

Q: Was that prompted by what General Breedlove said was the training of vehicle-borne...

REAR ADM. KIRBY: You'd have to talk to the FAA and other agencies that handle that.

I don't know what prompted it but I think it was obviously -- if you're going to issue a warning like that, it's -- it's based on concerns that you have about surface-to-air missile activity and capabilities.

[source : Department of Defense Press Briefing by Rear Adm. Kirby in the Pentagon Briefing Room, US Dept of Defense, http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/606897/department-of-defense-press-briefing-by-rear-adm-kirby-in-the-pentagon-briefing, 18th July 2014, Accessed 17th October 2015]

But if you read all the transcript then you will understand that the concern was that MH17 had been shot down by a BUK missile. And the concern was that, due to the capability of the BUK system, civilian traffic was in danger, because a BUK missile can easily reach 33000 feet, and well above that too!

So I ask again: why did Ukraine not shut down the airspace over East Ukraine?



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