Over the last few years, as the UK-USA-Israel Axis-of-Evil have tried to implement their A Clean Break/Rebuilding America's Defenses agenda after they engineered the "new Pearl Harbor" of 9/11 that they so desperately wanted and needed, there have been several provocations of Iran. I think the main one was in 2007 when the UK sent Marines into disputed waters to spy on Iran. Iran captured the spies and held them for weeks, threatening trial and imprisonment, but then released them as a gesture of goodwill at Easter. Iran won that one.
But this latest provocation really takes the limeade.
Iran has been humiliated by the Stuxnet assault, and it comes just after Iran used its opportunity at the United Nations to raise the huge question of who was really behind September 11th 2001.
But what worries me is that this year in particular members of the Iranian government and military have been boasting of the response from Iran if it was attacked, going so far as to show the mass graves being dug for the potential invaders.
Well, Iran has been attacked. Not militarily, but still attacked.
Iran may retaliate. It may not.
The retaliation, false-flag or not, may be military, asymmetric or cyber, any of which will please The Pentagoons.
But we may well soon see the first false-flag cyber attack, to be blamed on Iran, to clamp down on the internet, if not shut down the internet altogether.
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From http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3961057,00.html
Could Iran retaliate for apparent cyber attack?
Security experts believe Tehran will be reeling from effects of Stuxnet computer worm for a while, but warn it may try to strike back and 'set in motion a deadly game that catalyses a nuclear program'
Reuters
Published: 09.27.10, 22:08 / Israel News
Iran has limited capacity to retaliate in kind to an apparent cyber attack that infected computers at its sole nuclear power plant, analysts say, but some worry it could seek to hit back by other means.
Security experts say they believe the release of the Stuxnet computer worm may have been a state-backed attack on Iran's nuclear program, most likely originating in the United States or Israel. But they say the truth may never be known.
Cyber Attack
Tehran officials say Stuxnet computer virus infected 30,000 computers in Islamic Republic. Computer experts estimate worm originates from US, Israel, UK France or Germany
Little information is available on how much damage, if any, Iran's nuclear and wider infrastructure has suffered from Stuxnet -- and Tehran will probably never share the full details. Officials said on Sunday the worm had hit staff computers at the Bushehr nuclear power plant but had not affected major systems there.
Some analysts believe Iran may be suffering wider sabotage aimed at slowing down its nuclear ambitions, and point to unexplained technical problems that have cut the number of working centrifuges in its uranium enrichment program.
In the short term, intelligence experts believe Tehran's priority will be trying to identify the source of the attack and examining how the worm was uploaded onto its systems. "The Iranian internal security and counterintelligence departments will need to nail down the culprits first, then work out how to turn the tables," said Fred Burton, a former US counterintelligence expert who is now vice president of political risk consultancy Stratfor.
Deniable response
But finding reliable evidence identifying which country or group was responsible might well prove impossible, increasing the probability of a more unofficial and deniable reaction.
Some analysts suggest Iran might like to retaliate with a cyber attack against Israel or the West – although there are question marks over its capability to do so.
"I don't think we can expect much in the way of retaliatory cyber attacks," said regional analyst Jessica Ashooh. "The Iranians simply don't have the technical capacity to do anything similar to properly protected systems – as evidenced by the very hard time they are having controlling and quarantining this attack."
Nevertheless, experts say Iran has made improving its cyber espionage capability a priority – and will probably aim to grow these resources further in the years to come.
The risk, some worry, is that Iran might be tempted to either intensify its own nuclear program or target the West's own nuclear installations in return.
"How prepared are we all for this and could this set in motion a deadly game that catalyses a nuclear program no one intended to engage in?" said Mark Fitt, managing director of N49 Intelligence, a firm that advises businesses in the Middle East.
In terms of a more conventional response, Iran could potentially act through proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, as well as insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"They can... use networks in Afghanistan and the Gulf to strike back using unconventional `stealth tactics' and asymmetric methods," said Fitt.
Whatever happens, analysts say the Stuxnet attack is an early insight into the form state conflict may take in the 21st century.
"It's by no means a one-off – I think we'll see much more of this," said Ian Bremmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
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